Australians don’t think we’re in a recession. We’re just behaving like it.
Across 21 countries, 48% of people told us their economy is already in recession. In Australia, only 32% say the same — we’re among the least likely in the world to reach for the word.
Then look at what we’re actually doing:
- 73% of Australian households say they’re finding it harder to make ends meet than a year ago — above the 21-country average of 69%
- 54% are giving less to charity, one of the highest rates in the study
- Globally, 72% are spending less on clothing, 71% are dining out less, and half are spending less on food itself
Call it a ‘Vibecession’ if you like. Our data suggests the vibes have reasons.
The gap between what we say and what we spend has to be explained by something. Our own Australian research points at housing: when we ask Australians what concerns them, cost of living dominates. Within it, housing is the single biggest worry, ahead of war, the environment and AI.
That would explain the paradox. A recession is something that happens to the economy. Housing is something that happens to your budget. It’s fixed, it’s unavoidable, and it crowds out every discretionary line beneath it including clothes, restaurants, food, donations. This happens without it ever showing up in the national accounts as a downturn.
So here’s the question for anyone who works with Australian consumers: if households have already cut clothing, restaurants, food and charity to protect the mortgage or the rent, what’s the next category to go?
CONTACT
Dr David Donnelly, Founder, at Instinct & Reason
Phone: 0409 203057
Email: ddonnelly@instinctandreason.com
Alison Dexter, Head of Consulting, Instinct & Reason
Phone: 0499 586 681
Email: adexter@instinctandreason.com