A desire for change doesn’t always lead to a change of address.
New research explores the aspirations, motivations and barriers shaping Australia’s baby boomers as they consider leaving the city for coastal and regional communities.
Summary of PhD thesis: Australia’s baby boomers as internal migrants
Background and Aims
David’s (2025) doctoral thesis examines the internal migration of urban-dwelling Australian baby boomers (born 1946–1966) from capital cities to coastal (“sea change”) and rural (“tree change”) locations. The thesis addresses who relocates, and where, when and why, the study applies the aspiration–desire–drivers (ADD) framework (Carling & Collins, 2018) in conjunction with a life course perspective centred on retirement.
Method
A two-phase, quantitative-driven design was adopted. Study 1 comprised secondary analysis of nine waves (2013–2016) of Instinct and Reason’s Over 50s online panel survey, yielding a baseline sample of 3,759 city-dwelling baby boomers. Study 2 was a follow-up online survey, conducted in March–April 2022, to panel members who had expressed a definite or possible aspiration to relocate between 2016 and 2019. After exclusions, 778 cases were analysed. Respondents were classified into four outcome groups: Migrants, who had relocated (n = 368); Non-migrants, who had decided to remain (n = 115); Intenders, who still intended to move but had not yet done so (n = 194); and Hopefuls, whose plans had been thwarted (n = 101).
Key Findings
Study 1 revealed massive migration demand with 15% of urban baby boomers definitely, and a further 33% possibly, aspiring to relocate. Definite aspirants were younger, employed and on higher incomes, yet less likely to own their home, and concerned about retirement finances.
In Study 2, Migrants were predominantly male, retired and living in couple-only households, with higher homeownership than the wider baby boomer population. They were nonetheless heterogeneous in income and education, challenging the dichotomy between “affluent amenity seekers” and “welfare migrants”. Most relocated to coastal areas (59%), particularly larger centres, and 38% to rural areas. Timing was distributed across pre-retirement (37%), at-retirement (36%) and post-retirement (27%) moves. Compared with Non-migrants, Migrants perceived greater migration benefits, faced fewer social pressures to remain, reported slightly higher self-efficacy, prepared more thoroughly and cited retirement and career peaking as triggers. The COVID-19 pandemic heightened the appeal of non-metropolitan living, whereas the 2019 bushfires had a lesser effect. Migration was predominantly pull-driven, motivated by quality of life, lifestyle and a sense of community, and Migrants’ experiences generally met their expectations.
Non-migrants were older, more likely to be retired and over-represented in lower and middle income brackets. They reported significantly greater social pressure to stay and viewed relocation as complex and difficult. Hopefuls resembled Non-migrants on inhibiting factors, including social pressure from partners and children, perceived complexity and self-efficacy, while retaining positive expectations of relocation. Intenders occupied an intermediate position: they shared community values and retirement as a trigger with Migrants but held weaker migration attitudes and faced stronger opposing social pressures.
Conclusions
The thesis identifies a pronounced aspiration–desire gap. Converting aspiration into relocation required a combination of strong perceived benefits, low risk perception, minimal social anchoring, self-efficacy and a catalysing life event, most often retirement. Limitations include probable response bias towards Migrants and a small Non-migrant subgroup that constrained the regression analysis. Implications are drawn for regional planning, housing and relocation support, and further qualitative and longitudinal research is recommended.
References
Carling, J., & Collins, F. (2018). Aspiration, desire and drivers of migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 44(6), 909–926. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2017.1384134
Donnelly, D. (2025). The who, where, when and why of Australia’s baby boomers as internal migrants [Doctoral thesis, The University of Sydney].
